The missile in Poland apparently wasn’t Russia’s fault. It was the result of a Ukrainian counterattack against Russia missile escalation. Ukraine is facing a cold winter and Russia Vietnam style draft dodging.
The war in Ukraine has become a true war of attrition. Neither Putin nor President Zelensky can afford to lose face. Neither wants to appear too unreasonable. But both have taken very clear positions, with justification. Irreconcilable narratives. Both have invested so much that they cannot afford to look weak. If Putin compromises too much he’d give the opposition hope of overthrowing him and tempt hawks to do the same.